Introduction to International Politics
Foreign Event Analysis
| Locale | ![[]](http://www.kvasaheim.com/flags/flag15-ua.png "Flag of Ukraine") | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|
| Title |
Ukraine arms deal threatens Russia
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| Summary |
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused the Ukrainian government of supplying the Georgian military forces with weapons and Ukrainian military specialists. Russian officials claim that the new technology was responsible for Russian military deaths during the fighting and that the supply of arms to Georgian military units poses a direct threat to Russian power in the region. Ukraine occupies a very important strategic territory for Russia and Ukrainian support of Georgia, a Russian enemy, has made Ukraine appear as a threat to the stability of the region. Ukrainian officials have stated that they will investigate the matter, but domestic power struggles have divided the Ukrainian government so that results are doubtful. Fearing a loss of control in the region, Russia has gone about reasserting its strength.
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| Analysis |
Russia’s decision to invade Georgia was publicly stated as an effort to aid the South Ossentia people, but in reality it was an action that harks back to the Cold War and the idea of perimeter deterrence. With a U.S. backed government lying on its southern border, Russia felt threatened and went to reassert their power in the region by use of a military incursion. During the fighting, Russia has accused the Ukrainian government of supplying Georgian forces with arms and training. Russians claim that Ukrainian specialists operated equipment in the fighting, including antiaircraft missiles which destroyed four Russian planes.
Ukraine represents an area of strategic importance from a geopolitical standpoint as it borders both Russia and occupies key ports along the Black Sea. The current government of Ukraine is strongly allied with the United States and the region can now be considered as under the U.S. sphere of influence. Evidence of U.S. influence includes the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. The emergence of U.S. supported governments along Russian borders presents a threat and creates a security dilemma. Acting out of self-interest, Russia acted to fix the new security breach on its borders by undermining Georgia. Expanding on the self-interest theory, invading the weaker and smaller Georgia presented a way to demonstrate Russian power and resolve in the region.
The Ukrainian decision to aid Georgia can be based on the self-help theory and the idea that aiding another country along Russia’s border would create a more balanced region. By making Georgia a more potent threat by way of new arms, Ukraine attempted to protect itself from Russian domination in the region. Potential membership in NATO would allow Ukraine to balance the power in the region and neutralize Russian dominance. The military support of Georgia and continued cohesiveness with the United States have all been strategic moves by Ukraine to elevate their power in the region and nullify the threat of Russian intervention.
Ukrainian Domestic politics have also increased the volatility of the region. President Yuschenko has leaned toward a bandwagon approach and befriended the region’s dominant power, Russia. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Tymoschenko has sided with the United States, the world’s hegemonic power, as a means of promoting Ukrainian power in the region. This strong difference in opinion has created a zero-sum situation in that the loser of this political struggle will lose all power. Putin’s trip to Ukraine serves as a way to promote the politics of President Yuschenko as well as Russian power. The political struggle has the potential to alter the region’s security in that a pro U.S. Ukraine belittles Russian power, and that a Ukraine supportive of Russia would return Russian dominance in the region.
Russia’s military action in Georgia has proven both the military capability and the decisiveness of Russia. Its actions in Georgia serve as a credible warning to Ukraine and its decision to supply arms to Georgia; Ukraine must now fear possible military action by Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine’s decision on whether or not to join NATO has become more risky - Russia’s warnings must be balanced against U.S. and NATO military capability and credibility. The Ukrainian government must now ask itself: is Russia willing to invade if we join NATO and will NATO come to our aid if Russia invades? Ukraine must choose what is in its own self interest as well as what is the rational choice. | |
| Perspective |  | Realist |
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| Submitted | October 2, 2008 at 11:33 pm | |
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