Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Lebanon
Title
Syrian-Lebanese Tensions Escalate
Summary
Tensions between Lebanon and Syria are increasing as Syria deployed troops along its border with northern Lebanon last week under the pretext of preventing cross-border smuggling. This move coincided with a massive bombing in Damascus, Syria on Saturday, followed by a bombing in Tripoli, Lebanon on Monday. Official statements from both countries declare extremists groups to be responsible for the bombings. However, both countries expressed animosity towards one another following the attacks: Syrian president Bashar Assad claims that Northern Lebanon has become a breeding ground for extremism which threatens Syrian security, and Saad Hariri, leader of the anti-Syrian majority in the Lebanese Parliament declares that Syria’s deployment of troops is a direct threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Analysis
Syria’s deployment of troops along the border with northern Lebanon cannot be seen by Lebanon in any other way than as a threat to Lebanese security and sovereignty in light of current and previous Lebanese-Syrian relations. As Hariri pointed out, Syria does not have troops along its borders with Israel or Iraq, and considered with the Syrian president’s recent claim that Lebanon’s inability to curb extremism is the cause of insecurity in Syria, it is clear that Syria is really trying to assert its power over Lebanon.
In addition, Syria controlled Lebanon for thirty years up until 2005, so it no surprise that Lebanon fears that Syria is trying to reassert control by placing troops along the Lebanese border. Such a precedent explains why Hariri says Syria’s actions are a direct threat to Lebanese sovereignty, which has only recently been established. Syria’s support of Russia’s recent invasion of its former territory Georgia also caused Lebanon to fear that Syria may justify similar action in Lebanon. Syria has made clear through accusations of Lebanon’s inability to control extremism in its northern region and by fortifying the Syrian-Lebanon border that it does not believe Lebanon can sustain itself outside of Syrian control. Should Syria attempt to reclaim its control of Lebanon, the balance of power of the entire region would shift, and the fears of surrounding nations such as Iraq may increase with the possibility of Syria further exerting its power upon additional nations weakened by internal struggle.
Following on the heels of the Damascus bombing, Assad’s comment regarding Lebanon as a security threat to Syria because it harbors extremists insinuates that Syria blames Lebanon for the attack. The subsequent bombing in Tripoli may be viewed as a tit for tat strategy from Syria, as the Lebanese military was targeted in the attack. Regardless, both nations feel threatened, and therefore are increasing their security; Syria militarized its borders, and President Sleiman of Lebanon called for defining defense strategy. With diplomatic relations between the two countries only initiated in July, Syria appears to be attempting to prevent such relations that would put Syria and Lebanon on the same level, while Syria prefers to regard itself as dominant to Lebanon.
Perspectiver
Realist
In-Region URL
Out-of-Region URL
Submitted
October 2, 2008 at 2:59 pm