Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Israel
Title
New Israeli PM Seeks Coalition
Summary
The previous Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to resign so that he would be able to fight charges of corruption in his government. This forced a vote by the ruling Kadima party to see who would take Mr. Olmert’s place as PM. The race, though advertised as being largely in favor of Tzipi Livni, ended with a concession from her opponent after a close race that had them within 2 points of each other. Now the focus shifts from the race to the appointment of a new cabinet and what that will mean for Israel.
Analysis
Domestically, this election is important, as it will determine how the Israeli government will function in the coming months. If PM Tzipi Livni is successful in forming a coalition government, she may be able to put off a parliamentary vote, allowing the Kadima party and its allies to shore up their voting positions. However, should Livni fail to establish a working governing coalition, the government will be forced to hold new parliamentary elections within three months.
It is likely that any such parliamentary election would not end well for the Kadima party. Such an election, it is predicted, would play into the hands of the Likud party, the major centre-right party of Israel, which predicts a victory at the polls. If the election were to turn out like this, it is likely that there would be a major shift in both goverment policy-makers and policy.
On an international level, the victory of Tzipi Livni provides the Bush Administration with a chance, slim though it is, to fulfill their goal of a Palestinian-Israeli Peace Accord. Ms. Livni is more well liked than any of her adversaries by Fatah-PA officials, who consider her both competent and up to date on the situation in the Palestinian territories. She is seen as taking less hawkish stances on Palestine and Iran, and will be easier to work with. This would allow her to work more closely with members of the PA to come to a better solution in the area.
As a minor side note, her lack of corruption allegations, which plagued the Olmert administration, and her seeming greater willingness to negotiate with the PA may help restore some of the damage done to Israeli politics.
Perspectivel
Liberal
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Submitted
September 19, 2008 at 06:54 am