Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Bolivia
Title
Bolivia sits of the cusp of revolution
Summary
Political disagreement over President Eva Morales’ proposed constitutional changes have lead to rebellion in the lowland regions of Bolivia. The rebellion has already claimed the lives of 18 people and the casualty count is surely to rise if hostilities are not settled. With the regions security and trade at risk internal conflict promises to lead to regional strife. Countries and international organizations have come to the region in order to instill peace.
Analysis
The spark of rebellion came after Bolivian President Eva Morales attempted to alter the nation’s Constitution. The Constitutional change revolved around the Carta Magna which would call for a dignity tax. The lost income from lower level taxes would be made up with carbon taxes on the nation’s oil. Lowland opposition forces (Half Moon) took action against this possible Constitution change by taking over government buildings and killing 18 civilians. The 18 civilians were killed supposedly by the order of Leopold Fernandez, the governor of Pando.
In order to prevent a deadly and long term dangerous situation for the country and the region as a whole, international organizations have turned to diplomacy. In response to this potentially lethal situation, state and international organizations have flocked to Bolivia. The opening salvos of international peace keeping began with President Eva Morales’s expulsion of a U.S. ambassador. Morales is a strong ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez who has had several run-ins with the United States. Morales cited that the U.S was giving aid to insurgent forces from the wealthy oil producing region as reason to expel the U.S. ambassador. The U.S. responded by considering the removal of its 30 million dollars in annual aid to anti drug forces. Bolivia is unafraid of dissolving diplomatic ties to the U.S, already finding Russia as partner for aid. The expulsion of the U.S. ambassador and the possible elimination of anti drug aid have decreased the interdependence between the U.S. and Bolivia.
International organizations from across the world including the Catholic Church, the Union of South American Nations, the Organization of American States and the European Union have descended upon Bolivia in order to bring peace to the region. For western nations such as the U.S. and all of the countries of South America, there is a clear threat of violence as well as overwhelming economic effects. Revolution threatens Bolivia’s regional trade as well as its lucrative regional and intercontinental oil trade. The Catholic Church has taken the lead on the diplomatic front for all sides to come to the negotiation table.
Morales’s strong alliance with Venezuela will result in continued conflict as opposing forces will continue to fight regarding the aid of the capitalist world. Violence will threaten regional stability including neighboring economic powerhouses including Chile, Argentina and Brazil. Violence and instability will also weaken regional and international trade. Both the Organization of American States and the Union of South America will eventually use diplomatic power to remove Morales from the region.
Perspectivel
Liberal
In-Region URL
Out-of-Region URL
Submitted
September 19, 2008 at 12:36 pm