Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Nigeria
Title
Nigeria’s “Oil War"
Summary
Niger Delta militant groups have recently threatened to continue their attacks on oil pipelines and oil-pumping stations in the oil-rich Niger Delta. So far, the attacks have been restricted to Rivers State, but the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has vowed to extend their attacks to offshore oilfields in neighboring states in the Niger Delta. MEND, the most publicly visible of several armed groups operating in the impoverished delta region, has coined the attacks “Operation Hurricane Barbarossa.” There have been conflicting claims over the severity of the violence, with MEND claiming to have killed several Nigerian soldiers and oil workers and the military denying any such casualties.
The attacks have taken a huge toll on oil production in Nigeria. Prior to 2005, Nigeria was producing 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. After the attacks began in 2005, production was cut down to 2.1 million barrels a day. Because the militants have recently accelerated their attacks, oil production is down to about 1.5 million barrels a day. This heavy loss has aided in peak oil prices in international markets.
Analysis
The domestic level of analysis in the realist perspective underscores the struggle for power or control within the state, and it emphasizes a weak or failed state as the foundation for this struggle. Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has been plagued with corruption, with a strong minority in power (the government) exploiting the powerless majority (its citizens). This weak state has inevitably set a stage for conflict, particularly the struggle for control of its most valuable and abundant resource – oil.
The militant attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria are fueled primarily by neglect of the federal government for the region that supplies all of the country’s oil - the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta region is the source of most of the Nigerian government’s revenue, yet it ironically remains extremely impoverished. The Niger Delta militant groups desire more control over their region’s revenue. Through a realist perspective, one sees the struggle for power between the militant groups and the federal government for this control. The militant groups, mainly MEND, continue to use violence and destruction to coerce the federal government to send more of the oil-industry revenue to the Niger Delta. Knowing their destruction is threatening the country’s oil production and overall revenues, MEND sees this is as a forced incentive for the federal government to send more revenue to the area that creates it.
The attacks have seriously hindered oil production capacity in the Niger Delta region. In the past three years, oil production in Nigeria has decreased by about one million barrels of oil per day. This affects not only Nigeria’s revenue, which relies primarily on oil production, but also all other countries that depend heavily on Nigeria for their oil (Angola, for example). Regionally, the instability in Nigeria can have a spillover effect in West/Central Africa as many other African conflicts have done in the past (i.e. Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, South Africa, just to name a few). Internationally, Nigeria’s declining oil production has added to the sky rocketing oil prices in the international market.
Perspectiver
Realist
In-Region URL
http://www.thenationonlineng.com/dynamicpage.asp?id=63138
Out-of-Region URL
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/17/africa/AF-Nigeria-Oil-Unrest.php
Submitted
September 18, 2008 at 10:55 pm