Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Israel
Title
Iran to have nuclear capabilities in 2009; IAF Threatens Preemptive Strike
Summary
The Israel Air Force (IAF) held a foreign press tour to demonstrate its power and inter-workings to the rest of the world. This press tour just happened to coincide with the recent threat by Israel to launch a strike against suspected Iranian nuclear facilities. When asked questions by the press, IAF pilots refused to elaborate on any information regarding a strike on Iran. However, the threat of a strike has risen after the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission announced Iran would have enough highly enriched uranium by 2009 to develop a nuclear weapon.
Analysis
The growing tension between Israel and Iran is escalating even faster after new reports from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission announced a 2009 timetable for when Iran should have nuclear weapon capabilities. The greatest chance for Israel to knock Iranian nuclear development offline would to use the IAF to make a preemptive strike against the nuclear facilities. While remarked as a coincidence, the press tour of the IAF and ambiguous remarks made by IAF pilots have raised concerns that such a strike could be near. These actions by Israel are certainly to up the stakes against Iran and to show its resolve preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities.
Iran’s leader Ahmadinejad has stated in the past that Israel needs to be wiped off the earth and that he will deal a crushing blow to any state that attacks. Iran has recently developed new and more powerful surface to surface missiles which has also jeopardized the security of Israel since Iran can use conventional weapons before nuclear thus legitimizing his threats of force even more.
The struggle for dominance in the Middle East may be reaching the tipping point. Israel is already a nuclear power and the strongest state in the region; however, Iran commands friendly relations with most states encompassing Israel and thus has managed to check Israel’s power to an extent. With nuclear capabilities, Iran would be the new power in the region. The threats are becoming increasingly more real as Israel is faced with a very serious security dilemma and will most likely take action to remain secure. Iran has developed greater conventional weapons and has the capability to launch devastating attacks without the use of nuclear weapons. There is little doubt that a strike by Israel on Iran’s facilities will lead to the onset of another Middle East war, but this time the stakes are much higher as nuclear weapons are involved which then involves the security of every state in the world. International backing for a particular state will lead to that state being the new power and prevent a war from ever happening. The United States is a usual ally of Israel yet Russia and China have ties with Iran. Which ever state can gain the greatest backing will have the greatest control over the situation and the region.
Perspectiver
Realist
In-Region URL
Out-of-Region URL
Submitted
November 21, 2008 at 11:39 am