Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Ukraine
Title
Breakdown of Urkainian Coalition
Summary
On September 16th, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko withdrew from the coalition with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. These two figures had united their parties against the pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovych in the 2004 Orange Revolution. Increasing tension between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko, exacerbated by their differing stances on the conflict in Georgia, led to this falling out. Parliament now has 30 days to form a coalition before President Yushchenko can call for a new election.
Analysis
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to withdraw from his four-year political alliance with Yulia Tymoshenko signifies a shift in power between the three major parties in Ukrainian politics. During the October Revolution of 2004, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko united to unseat the pro-Moscow candidate, Viktor Yanukovych. Since then, however, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko have held increasingly divergent views, and their coalition no longer serves to secure their political interests. Thus, a new balance of power will emerge either in another coalition within this parliament or after an election.
Tymoshenko now has the option to unite with opposition leader Yanukovych. This could give her increased political security because Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions has the largest parliamentary presence. If these two were to unite, they would form a strong alliance and could consolidate control of the assembly. Tymoshenko could also find this advantageous because of her increasingly pro-Moscow leanings. She has been slower to condemn Russia’s actions in Georgia than her counterpart, President Yushchenko. This may indicate her desire to secure Ukraine’s political future by moving closer to Russia, a stance long held by Yanukovych.
The current conflict in Georgia certainly brought the conflict between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to a head. Yushchenko denounced Russia’s actions, particularly pointing to the presence of Russian military ships in Ukrainian territory on the Black Sea as unacceptable. Meanwhile Tymoshenko refused to comment on Russian aggression, claiming that it was not Ukraine’s concern. Tymoshenko’s silence indicates a desire to ally more closely with Russia and share Russian power. From this view, because Russian military power is the greatest in the region, Ukraine would be wise to ally itself with Russia rather than become its foe. Meanwhile Yushchenko’s stance shows his intention to assert Ukraine’s autonomy as a bid for control over its own territories and a degree of regional power.
The dissolution of the Orange Revolution coalition between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko resulted from increasingly different ideas of how Ukraine should gain security and power within the region. Tymoshenko’s pro-Moscow stance led her to engage in political maneuvering towards a possible coalition with Yanukovych, which would secure her position in the Ukrainian political scene.
Perspectiver
Realist
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Submitted
September 18, 2008 at 12:47 pm