Introduction to International Politics

Foreign Event Analysis

Locale[]
Moldova
Title
The Next South Ossetia? Russia and Transdnestr
Summary
As a result of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, several former Soviet republics fought for independence, citing their desire for national self-determination. However, the majority of these newly independent regions also contain minority nations of significant size and with significant differences between itself and the predominant nation of the new state. The Ossetians in Georgia are one such example. A second example is the de facto independent state of Transdnestr within Moldova.
Seeing the similarities between Georgia and Moldova, the European Union is seeking ways of ensuring the territorial integrity of Moldova. The Czech Prime Minister, Mirek Topolanek, seeks to have Russia withdraw its troops from Transdnestr. The European Union is using diplomacy to enhance ties between itself and former Soviet republics. In response, Russia asserts that it will work to preserve the territorial integrity of Moldova.
Analysis
Russia’s actions in Georgia suggest that it considers the frozen conflict in Moldova to be of interest to itself. In Georgia, the United States and Israel had stationed several hundred military advisors. In addition, the United States had spent several million dollars to upgrade the Georgian military and its installations to NATO standards. These actions prepared Georgia to enter NATO as a full member in the near future. In 2008, even with the persistent support of US President Bush, NATO declined an immediate offer of admission to Georgia, choosing to promise them future membership upon further political and military reforms. Had Georgia become a member of NATO, it would mark the first time that a former republic of the Soviet Union, and a bordering state, became a member of the alliance formed during the Cold War to battle the Soviet Union (led by Russia) and its Warsaw Pact allies. This would constitute a serious breach of Russian security along its southern border, well within its sphere of influence.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia served two main purposes. First, the invasion retaliated against Georgia for the deaths of several Russian citizens and peacekeepers stationed in South Ossetia who were killed in the Georgian advance into Ossetian territory. The Russian invasion reiterated to the world that Russia had the right to protect its citizens and its peacekeepers. Second, the Russian invasion sent the message that it will not allow its adversaries to create military presences on its borders.
While the Russian action in Georgia may not seem related to Moldova, it is. From a Realist perspective, we can expect Russia to treat Moldova similarly to how Russia treated Georgia, especially with the number of similarities between the two frozen conflicts. These similarities include the presence of Russian peacekeepers, a history of being an integral part of the Soviet Union, a high proportion of ethnic Russians, and a large number of dual Russian citizens. Any attempt by Moldova to invade its breakaway region in an effort to unify the state would most probably be met with military action from Moscow, especially if it is preceded with military aid from the United States.
As such, the best course of action from the United States would be to ensure that Moldova knows it cannot count on the United States to neither support a NATO bid nor begin sending military aid. Moldova is neither within our sphere of influence nor a part of our national security. As such, NATO must closely examine Moldova’s intent to increase its ties to NATO, especially as Moldovan membership would put Washington at odds with Moscow, thus increasing the probability of a interstate conflict between the two adversaries.
Perspectiver
Realist
In-Region URL
http://www.regnum.ru/english/1050258.html
Out-of-Region URL
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/02/europe/EU-Czech-Moldova.php
Submitted
September 16, 2008 at 10:08 am