The Assignment

Download your data. Each of you has a unique data set.

The data record the outcomes of 101 chemistry experiments. Each experiment is exactly the same except for your familiarity with the procedure. As the trial number increases, your familiarity with the procedure increases. Thus, the probability of a successful trial is a function of the trial number.

And so, here is the ultimate question:

• Did you get more proficient at performing the experiment as time passed?

For You to Do

1. Model the probability of success as a function of trial number. Make sure you perform appropriate tests.
    
2. Provide the regression table for your model. Make sure you explain the table.
    
3. Create a table with the following statistics:
• Accuracy (τ = 0.500)
• Relative Accuracy (τ = 0.500)
• FPR (τ = 0.500)
• FNR (τ = 0.500)
• Maximum Accuracy (and the associated τ)
• AUC
   
4. An interpretation of these six statistics.
    
5. Create one graphic with the data shown and the regression curve.
    
6. Finally, let us do what we were hired to do. Is there sufficient evidence that you got better with time (or worse with time)? Explain.

Do Not Forget

Do not forget to include your code in the appendix. I should be able to run your code and achieve the same results as you.