Ethnic Conflict	
Failed States, Rogue States
Thus far… 
•	In this chapter, we are examining the effects of ethnic conflict on international security.
•	Specifically, in our last class, among other things, we: 
–	Discussed the three main humanitarian problems created by (ethnic) conflict
•	Today:
–	We will discuss the problems of failed states and rogue states and why we should care
The Somali Republic
•	Capital:		Mogadishu
•	President:		Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed
•	Population:		8,863,338 (est.)
•	IDPs:		400,000
•	External Debt:	$3,000,000,000
•	X-Debt per cap:	$338.47
•	GDP per cap:		$600.00
The Somali Republic?
•	Somalia 	(1 July 1960)
–	http://www.somali-gov.info/ 
•	Somaliland 	(18 May 1991)
–	http://www.somalilandgov.com/ 
•	Puntland 	(5 May 1998)
–	http://www.puntlandgov.net/ 
•	Galmudug 	(14 Aug 2006)
–	http://www.galmudug.com/ 
Background (Pre-Colonial)
•	Land was inhabited by Somalis for at least the last 2500 years
•	Traded with ancient Egypt, Rome, and Greece
•	Kingdom of Askum (300-700 CE)
•	Mogadishu founded (900 CE)
•	City-State era (1200-1500)
•	Ajuuraan Sultanate (1400-1700)
Background (Colonial)
•	French, British and Italians staked their colonial claims (1884)
•	Italian East Africa (1889-1945)
–	Italian Somaliland
–	Eritrea
–	Abyssinia
Background (Siad)
•	1960
–	British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland joined to form  Somalia. 
•	1969
–	Coup headed by Mohamed Siad Barre ushered in an authoritarian socialist rule that managed to impose a degree of stability in the country for a couple of decades. 
Background (Chaos)
•	1991 (January 6)
–	Barre regime overthrown
–	Descent into turmoil, factional fighting, and anarchy
•	1991 (May 18)
–	Northern clans declared an independent Republic of Somaliland that now includes the administrative regions of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool
Background (The UN)
•	1993
–	UN humanitarian effort (primarily in the south) was able to alleviate famine conditions, 
•	1995
–	UN withdrew in 1995, having suffered significant casualties, order still had not been restored
Background (Puntland)
•	1998 (May 5)
–	The regions of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug comprise a neighboring self-declared autonomous state of Puntland
–	It has also made strides toward reconstructing a legitimate, representative government, but has suffered some civil strife
Background (Peace?)
•	2000 (August)
–	Transitional National Government (TNG) created in Arta, Djibouti (to expire in 2003)
•	2002 
–	Peace process began, led by Kenya under the auspices of the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) 
•	A seven-state regional development organization in East Africa
Background (TFI)
•	2004
–	Formation of a new transitional government, known as the Somalia Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs)
–	Elements of the TFI:
•	Federal President—Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed
•	Prime Minister—Ali Mohamed Ghedi
•	Federal Assembly—275-member parliamentary body
•	Federal Government—90-member cabinet. 
Background (UIC)
•	2006 (June):
–	A loose coalition of clerics, business leaders, and Islamic court militias—known as the Union of Islamic Courts—defeated powerful Mogadishu warlords and took control of the capital
–	The Courts expanding and spreading their influence throughout much of southern Somalia and threatening to overthrow the TFG in Baidoa.
Background (Galmudug)
•	2006 (August 14)
–	Mohamed Warsame Ali 'Kiimiko' elected president of the newest state of Galmudug in the region surrounded by Puntland, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
–	Created by warlord Abdi Qebdiid, who was expelled from Mogadishu by the UIC
–	
Background (Ethiopia)
•	2006 (December):
–	Ethiopian and TFG forces, concerned over suspected links between some UIC factions and al-Qaeda, drove the UIC from power
–	TFG and Ethiopian soldiers take Mogadishu
Background (Next?)
•	Currently
–	United States (January 9, 2007) attacked UIC positions in the south with AC-130 gunships
–	Remnants of the UIC continue battling in the southwestern corner of Somalia near the Kenyan border
–	TFG continues to struggle to exert control over Mogadishu and to prevent the reemergence of the warlords
•	Regardless:
–	The TFG does not control Somalia
Importance
•	Realist concerns:
–	Anti-American elements could take control (UIC, al Qaeda, etc.)
–	Neighboring states destabilized and drawn in to conflict
•	Diffusion and Encouragement
–	Tangible Support
–	Political and Diplomatic Support
•	Isolation and Suppression
–	Motivation: 
•	Instrumental 
•	Affective
Importance
•	Idealist concerns:
–	
–	State cannot protect citizens
–	State becomes autocratic
–	Humanitarian issues arise
–	Drug trade increases

Assignment
•	Taras and Ganguly: 90-96.
•	Friday:
–	Ethnic Resolution by Third Parties 
–	Be prepared to talk for 3 minutes on your research question