Ethnicity, Nationalism, and Democracy
The Problem with Failed States
Definition of Failed States
•	One definition of a state:
–	An authoritative political institution sovereign over a recognized territory
•	What is sovereignty?
–	Internal Sovereignty
–	External Sovereignty
•	Thus, there could be two separate sources of “failure”
–	Internal Failure
–	External Failure
External Failure
•	The state is unable to meet its obligations as a member of the system of states
•	Disintegrated or collapsed state
–	Incapable of sustaining itself as a member of the  international community
Internal Failure
•	The state is unable to meet the needs of its citizens
•	Internal disintegration of a state
–	Unable to provide basic, social, economic, legal, political services and safe-guards to the public at large
•	Government lost minimal capacity and therefore right to rule
•	Recreation of a Hobbesean State of Nature:
–	Components of society have to fend for themselves on the domestic level
–	Governmental collapse, economic devastation, societal fragmentation
–	Product of a collapse of the power structures providing political support for law and order
•	Fails when no longer performs the domestic functions normally attributed to it
Roots of State Failure
•	Proliferation of states following World War II
–	Especially the Decolonization Movement in the 1960s
–	Principle of self-determination
•	The Cold War
–	Preserved some newly independent and other Third World states
–	States propped up by the US 
–	States propped up by the USSR
Causes of State Failure
•	Corruption of state leaders?
–	Barre in Somalia
–	Eyadéma  in Togo
–	Mobutu in Zaire
–	Mugabe in Zimbabwe
•	Historical root of the problem
–	Legacy of colonialism
•	Influences of the international
–	Natural resources
–	Neighboring civil wars
–	Neighboring instability
–	Neighbor’s refugees
Warnings of State Failure
•	Can we tell when a state is on the verge of failing?
•	Can we tell before it is too late?
–	Center’s loss of control over periphery
–	Descent to ethnic nationalism
–	Governing authority’s loss of power
–	Practice of defensive politics
–	Avoidance of critical decisions
–	Emphasis on enemies of the state
Characteristics of Failure
•	What does state failure look like when we do not avoid it?
–	Civil strife
–	Political corruption
–	Economic collapse
–	Societal degradation
–	Domestic chaos
–	Human rights abuse
–	Crumbling state infrastructure
Threats to the International
•	Collapsed states cause regional instability
–	Domino effect
–	Economic stresses
•	Threats to neighboring states
–	Refugee flows
–	Political instability
–	Rebel safe zones
•	Abuses of human rights
The UN and Failed States
•	Failure of UN intervention in the past
–	Short-term solutions
–	Failure of humanitarian aid
•	Actions taken by the Security Council
–	Resolution 794 on Somalia
–	Authorized use of force
–	Protecting humanitarian operations
–	Peacekeeping in refugee camps
–	Peacekeeping along international borders
Human Rights
•	There is a growing consensus that human rights are (or should be) an international concern
•	Widespread violation of human rights seen as a de facto threat to peace
•	This leads to the development of international humanitarian law
–	Problems with implementation
Examples of Failed States
•	Somalia: 
–	Ruled by warlords
–	Divided into autonomous zones
•	Liberia and Sierra Leone:
–	Small-scale conflicts
–	Unable to hold territory together during civil war
•	Rwanda: 
–	Massacres and genocide
–	Failure of social contract
•	Cambodia: 
–	Twenty-year conflict between warring parties
•	Lebanon: 
–	Civil wars in 1980s
–	Continued sectarian politics
–	Continued meddling by states in internal government business
•	Congo: 
–	Essentially ungovernable since independence in 1960
–	Resource rich
–	Rain forest separates east from west
–	East and West are separate ethnicities
The Failed States Index
•	Developed by “Fund for Peace” and published by “Foreign Policy”
•	Facets
–	Only addresses UN-member states
–	Twelve indicators
–	Zero (most stable) to 10 (least stable) scale on each
–	Final score is sum of all twelve indicator scores
•	The four social indicators:
–	Mounting demographic pressures
•	Human vs. food
–	Massive movement of refugees and IDPs
•	Large communities uprooted
–	Chronic and sustained human flight
•	Brain drain
•	Money drain
–	Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance
•	Committed with impunity
•	The two economic indicators:
–	Uneven economic development along group lines
•	Group-based discrimination
–	Sharp and/or severe economic decline
•	Failure of state to pay salaries
•	International bankruptcy 
•	Currency devaluation
•	The six political indicators: 
–	Criminalization of the state
•	Systemic corruption
–	Progressive deterioration of public services
–	Widespread violation of human rights
–	Security apparatus as “State within a State”
•	Emergence of praetorian guards operating with impunity
–	Rise of factionalized elites
–	Intervention of other states or external actors
Ten Top Failed States 2007
•	Sudan	113.7
•	Iraq	111.4
•	Somalia	111.1
•	Zimbabwe	110.1
•	Chad	108.8
•	Côte d’Ivoire	107.3
•	The DRC	105.5
•	Afghanistan	102.3
•	Guinea	101.3
•	CAR	101.0
Ten Top Failed States 2006
•	Sudan	112.3
•	The DRC	110.1
•	Côte d’Ivoire	109.2
•	Iraq	109.0
•	Zimbabwe	108.9
•	Chad	105.9
•	Somalia	105.9
•	Haiti	104.6
•	Pakistan	103.1
•	Afghanistan	99.8
Saving a Failed State
•	Two models that have been used in the past
–	Top-Down
•	Establishment of Leviathan
–	Bottom-Up
•	People build from ground up
A Threat to America?
•	Failed states are not a direct national security threat to the United States
–	They are not a direct threat to anyone
–	The threat comes indirectly, through the results of failure
–	State failure ranks low as an accurate metric for measuring the threats
•	If state failure is itself threatening, the United States should be very worried about countries like Sierra Leone, Chad etc.
•	The dangers to the US spring from indirect effects:
–	State not in control of its territory
•	Leads to terrorists in the state
Solutions?
•	Nation Building 
–	Also known as Peace Building
–	Clinton’s missions:
•	Bosnia
•	Haiti
•	Somalia
•	All three had vague goals which contributed to their difficulties
–	The results of these three attempts?
•	Bush 2000 campaigned against the very idea of nation building as a good component of foreign policy
•	September 11 brought failed states to the fore of Bush’s foreign policy views
–	Congress in 2004 created a new office in the State Department called Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
–	Current Czar of Nation Building is John E. Herbst
•	Budget of $20 million
•	Fifteen permanent positions
–	Current operations
•	Ten-ish: Djibouti, Liberia, Kosovo, Haiti
When to Nation Build?
•	Good question!
–	Will events in a failed state are truly going to affect American lives?
–	Will they affect human rights in the area?
–	Will they affect the flow of capital around the world?
–	Will they allow direct threats to the United States to form and grow?
•	History of U.S. involving nation building
•	Successes:
–	Japan 
–	West Germany
•	Less-than-successes:
–	Bosnia
–	Kosovo 
–	Afghanistan
•	RAND report says
–	“nation building… is a time- and resource-consuming effort.” And, “among controllable factors, the most important determinant is the level of effort measured in time, manpower, and money.”
•	How many troops are needed?
–	The Defense Science Board’s calculations for achieving “ambitious goals” in a failed state:
•	20 foreign soldiers for every 1,000 residents
•	That comes to 520,000 troops for ten-plus years in Iraq
US Nation Building Missions
•	Operation Uphold Democracy
–	Haiti
•	Restored a government 
•	Installed 8,000 peacekeepers
•	Operation Provide Relief and Restore Hope
–	Somalia
•	Brought in tons of food
•	18 American died
•	Operation Enduring Freedom
–	Technically an umbrella name for all operations in response to 911
–	Usually used to refer to the US War in Afghanistan
–	Successes:
•	Taleban removed
•	President elected
•	Infrastructure built
–	Failures:
•	Opium production is up
•	Warlordism is prevalent
•	Taleban is resurgent
•	Operation Iraqi Freedom
–	Iraq
–	Successes:
•	Dictator removed
•	Elections held
•	Privatization of government businesses
–	Failures:
•	Humanitarian issues
•	Increase in al Qaeda operations
•	Iraq diaspora
•	Infrastructure damage